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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 8th, 2014–Mar 9th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Sunday: Moderate to heavy snowfall overnight (10-15 cm north and 20-30 cm south) drying out during the day. Expect a mix of sun and cloud Sunday. The freezing level should peak around 1400-1600 m. Winds are moderate to strong from the W-SW. Monday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and possible flurries. The freezing level is around 1200 m. Winds are light to moderate from the west. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level is around 1400 m and winds are light and variable.

Avalanche Summary

There were no new reports from Friday. Forecast heavy precipitation, strong winds, and high freezing levels are all reasons to expect another natural avalanche cycle late on Saturday and possibly into Sunday morning. Natural activity should taper off over the next day or two as conditions dry out.

Snowpack Summary

Coquihalla and south: Recent mild temperatures have resulted in rain to ridge top in many areas. It's likely that the upper snowpack below 1700-1800 m is saturated and/or contains several melt-freeze crusts. The early March melt-freeze crust is down 60-100 cm depending on elevation. There are no new snowpack tests on this layer to report; however, continued loading and mild temps should help stabilize this previous weak layer. Duffey Lake and north: New dense wind slabs are likely in exposed NW-E facing terrain and cross-loaded features. It seems like the snow line creeped up to 1700-1800 m resulting in moist snow below. The early March melt-freeze crust can be found down 40-60 cm on north aspects up to 1800 m and south aspects up to 2200 m. The mid Feb weak layer is generally now found down 70-120 cm. Recent snowpack tests continue to give popping shears where this layer is less than 100 cm deep. Deeply buried weak layers of facets and depth hoar remain a concern on high alpine slopes with thin or variable snow cover.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.