Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Feb 15 – 16, 2015Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=19299&oPark=100092We have a very touchy avalanche conditions and have seen some very large full path avalanches in the last 24 hrs.  Stick to low angle terrain away from large overhead slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Forecasters are doubtful that cooler temperatures will improve this weakness in the short term.  Triggering of these slabs is possible even in low angle terrain .

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    This layer has become more reactive with recent weather. Even light loads are enough to trigger full depth avalanches.

Weather Forecast

Daytime temperatures will cool on Sunday with good overnight freezes possible by Monday.  Dry sunny conditions are forecast into the week.  Light SW winds will accompany these stable conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain that changed to snow overnight has created a saturated snowpack extending into tree line.  Limited overnight freeze created a weak melt freeze crust that broke down quickly with daytime heating and solar radiation.  At higher elevations, a 40-80 cm deep persistent slab is sitting over multiple touchy interfaces on all aspects.

Avalanche Summary

There has been an avalanche cycle with numerous size 2 slab avalanches ranging form 1700 m to 2600 m on all aspects, many stepping down to the basal facets/November rain crust.  Several larger avalanches also observed including a full path size 3.5 on the South Churchill Slide path (East Aspect 2400 m)

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable on Sunday

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