Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

We're now in the middle of a series of waves of Pacific moisture. Forecast models vary on the timing of the incoming storms, some locations may see larger amounts of precipitation. In addition, the southern parts of the forecast area may see warmer temperatures than the north.Friday night: Freezing level at valley bottom; Precipitation should end in the early evening and begin a break in the weather.Saturday: Freezing level 1000m; A bit of a break in the weather early on Saturday. Precipitation beginning in the early afternoon and into Sunday, some areas may receive up to 10 cm. Light winds from the south east at ridge top.Sunday: Freezing level at valley bottom. More Pacific moisture with 10 to 20cm in the precipitation forecast. Winds from the west, light to moderate at ridge top.Monday: Freezing level 800m, trace amount of precipitation, wind from the south, light at ridge tops.

Reports of natural avalanches up to size 3 running in the new snow on top of the old weak surfaces. Skier controlled and skier remote avalanches up to size 2. Wind affected areas above tree line may produce larger avalanches.

In recent days many parts of the forecast area have received up to 90cm of snowfall. The combination of new snow, wind and moderate temperature have formed a cohesive and reactive storm slab with deeper, more destructive deposits developing in exposed lee terrain. Significant cornice development is expected to have occurred as well.Below the new snow is a mixed bag of surface hoar, facetted snow and other hard surfaces which formed during the previous cold clear weather. The bond between the new storm slab and these buried surfaces is weak with professional accounts of very easy snowpack test results and widespread destructive avalanche activity. Due to the persistent nature of these buried weaknesses, touchy conditions are likely to exist for some time.For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. Although basal facets are likely to exist in some areas, triggering has now become unlikely.