The avalanche danger will rise in direct relation to the amount of snow over the next 2 days. The distribution of the Dec3 surface hoar is still in question, and the new snow may trigger large slides where this layer is preserved.
Weather Forecast
Continued snow as a series of storms roll over the area. Expecting up to 40 cm accumulated by Wednesday night. Moderate to strong SW winds with mild temps. Freezing levels remaining consistent at around 1500m throughout the storm.
Snowpack Summary
25cm of new snow in past 72 hours appears to be bonding well to a breakable sun crust on steep solar aspects. On shady aspects the crust did not form, and the Dec3 surface hoar can be found in isolated sheltered locations at treeline. The snowpack is shallow and faceted below treeline, more supportive above 1900m. Extensive scouring in the alpine.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.