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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2016–Mar 21st, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Solar influence, overhead cornice failure or isolated loading or cross-loading will affect the localized hazard as we approach spring like conditions.

Weather Forecast

Mild temperatures with freezing levels remaining at treeline with poor overnight recovery (re-freezing). Light Southwest winds with light scattered flurries amounting to up to 10cm by Monday evening then tapering off. Temperatures expected to drop by Tuesday evening.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is generally shallow and poorly consolidated, significant variation exists within the forecasting area. The persistent slab may still be active in the Portal Creek area. This layer could be triggered from thin spots on the slope (trees, rocks, etc). Alpine wind slab is present on lee slopes. Springlike conditions below tree-line.

Avalanche Summary

Significant large avalanches reported for field teams in the Icefields area. Appear that the most significant of which have been triggered by cornice failure up to sz 3.5 in the Alpine in the past 72 hours.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.