If the weather models underestimate the snowfall, avalanche danger could increase early next week.
Weather Forecast
Clouds will increase starting Sunday morning with moderate snowfalls beginning Sunday evening through to Tuesday morning. Initial estimates were up to 30cm, but this has been tapered back in this afternoon's forecast. Winds will continue light to moderate from the Southwest and will shift to a Northwest flow as the system goes through on Monday.
Snowpack Summary
Most areas above treeline and in the alpine have been wind blasted. Hard slabs are widespread, and provide a strong bridge over any underlying weakness. Some solar affect has occurred in the high alpine on Westerly slopes. Below treeline, the snowpack is facetted throughout but no slab overlies this weakness.
Avalanche Summary
One size 2.5 slab avalanche was observed originating in a cross loaded alpine gully on a Southwesterly aspect at approximately 2800 meters indicating that the sun is gaining strength in the afternoons.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.