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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 10th, 2013–Apr 11th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis:  A pacific low approaches the North Coast late Thursday bringing strong SW winds and widespread snowfall.  Thursday: Freezing Level: Valley bottom. Precip: Isolated convective flurries. Wind: Mod, WFriday: Freezing Level: Initially valley bottom, rising to 700m. Precip: 10/15mm – 10/20cm Wind: Strong, SWSaturday: Freezing Level: 800m Precip: Isolated convective flurries. Wind: Light, Variable.

Avalanche Summary

Wind loaded NW facing features produced size 1.0 loose snow avalanches on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of new snow sits on a melt-freeze crust at most elevations. Warm temperature and a freezing level around 1000m during Tuesday night's storm combined with solar radiation resulted in moist snow on solar aspects at lower elevations. Pockets of wind slab have developed in exposed lee terrain and cross-loaded gullies. 30 - 60 cm of snow overlies a crust, old wind slabs or surface hoar layer buried on March 9th. The distribution of the surface hoar is also highly variable and it does not exist in every drainage. I would still remain cautious and continue to dig and test before diving into my line. Deeper in the snowpack, basal facets may resurface as a concern with continued mild temperatures.Cornices have become well-developed and could easily become unstable during periods of warm weather or direct solar radiation.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.