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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 8th, 2012–Dec 9th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Generally overcast with light amounts of precipitation accompanied by winds from the west 20-30km/h switching to the northwest at 30-40km/h in the afternoon.Alpine temperatures -8 degrees.Monday: A warm front is expected to give a rise in freezing levels to 800m. Light precipitation along with moderate to strong northwesterly winds. Alpine temperatures -9.Tuesday: Light to locally moderate  precipitation. Alpine temperatures -8 with a freezing level at 900m. Moderate southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

There are limited recent observations from this region.

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow from the past week has has settled and been redistributed by the wind. Instabilities (surface hoar layer on sheltered northerly aspects and a thin sun crust on steep southerly aspects) may exist within or down 50-70 cm. We have very limited information on the extent or sensitivity of these layers, but suspect them to be reactive under the load of the new snow. A second buried surface hoar layer, down about 115 cm, and the early November rain crust (facet-crust combo), over 140cm down in some locations, remain a concern for isolated deep slab avalanches.Average snow depths at treeline seem to be between 150 and 200cm. Elevations below 1500m are still reported as below threshold.In general, snowpack data is sparse in this region and significant variations likely exist from one drainage to another. Digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are greatly appreciated. Email us at [email protected].

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.