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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2013–Jan 11th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A weak weather system could brush the coast on Friday resulting in more cloud and a chance of flurries. Areas further inland should still see some sunny breaks. Saturday and Sunday should see a mix of sun and cloud as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds off the coast. The freezing level should stay at valley bottom throughout the period. Winds should be generally light from the north, but areas closer to the coast could see stronger outflow winds develop.

Avalanche Summary

Clear weather on Wednesday revealed a previous natural avalanche cycle (+48 hours) with slabs up to size 3. Most events appeared to release within the recent storm snow, with a few events suspected to have stepped down to the late December surface hoar or facet layers.

Snowpack Summary

50-100cm of storm snow has fallen in the past 10 days or so. Northerly outflow winds may have produced wind slabs in exposed terrain primarily near the coast. Weaknesses within this recent storm snow have strengthened but a weak layer of facets or surface hoar exists at the base of the storm snow. Recent snowpack tests give generally moderate sudden planar, or "pops", results on this buried surface hoar layer and indicate potential for wide propagation. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer continues to concern local avalanche professionals. This weakness is unlikely to be triggered by a single person, but it remains possible with a very heavy load (e.g. cornice fall) or from a thin-spot trigger point.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.