Avalanche Forecast

The high pressure ridge continues to dominate the coastal regions. Strong alpine temperature inversions will be prominent with warm air above 1000 m ranging from 0-5 degrees. Moderate to strong outflow winds will prevail in coastal valleys. Valley cloud may accompany the strengthening temperature inversion and outflows will diminish Saturday as pacific air starts to move into the north. By Sunday the weather pattern may see change, however; timing and intensity of the next Pacific system is hard to pin point due to disagreement between the Canadian model and the GFS.

No new avalanches have been reported. This may speak to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. Newly formed wind slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering and surface snow may start to deteriorate especially on solar aspects with the warming. Watch for obvious clues of instability like natural avalanches, snow balling and moist/ wet snow.

The snowpack is extremely variable depending on aspect and elevation, with new wind slabs developing on reverse loaded southerly slopes and widespread surface crusts on all aspects at lower elevations. At upper elevations, last weekends storm likely produced stiff wind slabs on northerly aspects. The reactivity of these new wind slabs will likely change with elevation and underlying snowpack structure. The snowpack doesn't adjust well to rapid changes, so it may take several days to adjust and settle with the warm temperatures at higher elevations. Due to limited observations, I have very little confidence in what that underlying structure may be, although I suspect faceting, crusts and surface hoar may exist. How are they adjusting and reacting as shears? Are they distinct and reacting like a cash register when tested? Or are they becoming hard to find with resistant shear characteristics? If I were traveling in the mountains, I'd maintain a conservative and investigative approach and dig down to test for weak layers before committing to a slope.