Winds are going to increase starting Wednesday morning. There is snow available to transport increasing the probability of overloading an already weak snowpack. Even more snow and stronger winds forecast for Friday.
Weather Forecast
In the Columbia Icefields, expect for Wednesday -10 to -16 degrees Celsius, flurries, and 25km/hr Westerly winds. Thursday and Friday winds will pick up Westerly 50km/hr Alpine and Treeline, trending warmer temperatures, and 15-25cm of snow Thursday night into Saturday. Still a few days away but one can hope and offer sacrifices to Ullr.
Snowpack Summary
A persistent slab at TL and ALP is buried by 10cm of snow and light winds making for powdery conditions. A rain crust is buried by this recent snow below 1900m. A somewhat dense upper snowpack overlies a weak faceted base making for unpredictably dangerous avalanche conditions. A surface hoar layer may be 40cm deep yet remains unconfirmed.
Avalanche Summary
Tuesday's patrol up Cavel road observed no new natural activity but this is only a small part of our region. Snowpack was extremely weak underfoot.
Confidence
Wind effect is extremely variable
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.