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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2015–Jan 13th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Little Yoho.

Despite the fact that it has not snowed since last week, we continue to be concerned about human triggered avalanches and are keeping our danger rating at Considerable. We believe any steep start zone could be triggered at this time.

Weather Forecast

A stable week ahead as the NW flow persists keeping the air cool with light winds.  No snow in the forecast until Friday, and temperatures this week will range from -5 to -10.  All told an uneventful week ahead for weather.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack observations at 2200m on Mt. Field today (just below the last roll to the summit) indicate a 145cm snowpack with the Dec 18 surface hoar layer down 45cm and very prominent (moderate test results with a sudden planar shear). This layer remains prime for human triggering and continues to be slow to heal. Some wind effect on the snow surface.

Avalanche Summary

Flights over the park today with good visibility revealed a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the past 48-hours. Wide propagations at treeline and above up to size 3, many running to the bottom of the runout zones.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.