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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 7th, 2015–Dec 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Tuesday should be another wet day at Hurricane, with periods of heavy precipitation. Careful snow evaluation and cautious route finding should be essential if you venture into avalanche terrain.

Detailed Forecast

Another strong warm front should cause renewed strong southwest to west winds and periods of moderate to heavy rain or snow Tuesday along with further warming. 

New wind and storm slab will again be the focus on Tuesday at Hurricane Ridge where snow should change to rain. Careful snow evaluation and cautious route finding should be essential if you venture above treeline.

With little snow near and especially below treeline at Hurricane, wet loose snow avalanches will not be in the forecast. But change your plans if you find wet snow deeper than a few inches or see signs of wet loose activity such as pin wheels or natural wet loose avalanches.

Snowpack Discussion

We have not received any snowpack observations from Hurricane Ridge so far this season. However, given the warming and heavy precipitation over the past few days, and especially the significant warming, wind and precipitation Monday, it is very likely that an unstable upper snowpack has developed over the Olympic Mountains. Heavy dense recent snow likely overlies a strong melt-freeze crust from mid-November. This likely snowpack structure should have formed dangerous avalanche conditions above treeline where extra caution is essential. 

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.