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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2015–Mar 13th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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East of the crest Friday watch for unlikely small wet loose avalanche conditions mainly on solar aspects.

Detailed Forecast

A mostly sunny warm day should be seen on Friday with freezing levels rising to around 9,000 feet in the north and around 10-11,000 feet in the south.

East of the crest there wasn't any new snow Wednesday to Thursday morning so there should not be a significant change in the stable surface crusts and consolidated snow. East of the crest Friday watch for unlikely small wet loose avalanche conditions mainly on solar slopes.

Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation. Many areas below treeline do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Heads up for the expected rain event on Saturday.

Snowpack Discussion

The latest warm dry period of the winter was seen from the start of March through Tuesday. This was mainly a period of consolidation and stabilizing throughout the Cascades. Reports indicated thickening surface crusts on most slopes and some corn snow development on solar slopes.

The North Cascade Mountain Guides were in the Harts Pass and Washington Pass area over the weekend. They reported some cool varied surface snow on north slopes, corn snow on south slopes, and no stability concerns. The snow study plot on a north aspect at 6600 feet above Varden Creek measured a snow depth of nearly two and a half meters! They also re-affirmed the overall low avalanche danger. 

There have not been any reports of significant avalanches in the Cascades for some time.

A weak front crossed the Northwest Wednesday to Thursday morning. NWAC sites west of the crest near and below treeline picked up anywhere from about .1 to 1.6 inches of rain with some snow above treeline on the volcanoes. But very little fell east of the crest.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.