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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 10th, 2014–Apr 11th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Start early. Start early. Start early. Avoid the warmer times of the day when the surface crusts have softened.

Weather Forecast

Rogers Pass will see a mix of sun and cloud with the occasional flurry today. Freezing levels may rise to 1600m, but it will remain cool in the alpine and tree-line elevations. Winds will be light to moderate from the SW.

Snowpack Summary

A good freeze has left the surface snow crusty at lower elevations, although some dry snow may be found on due north aspects above 2400m. Extreme winds may have blown this into slabs in exposed lee areas. The mid to lower snowpack is very well settled. If the sun pops through, expect a rapid deterioration of low elevation surface crusts.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday, several natural avalanches from size 1.5-2.5 were noted from solar aspects. These occurred mainly in the afternoon at the warmest time of day. A notable size 3.5 occurred at the peak of the warmth 36 hours ago on a SW aspect, showing that the persistent weak layers are still active once the snowpack warms up enough.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.