A warm storm system is forecast. Up to 20cm of heavy snow and loading by SW'ly winds is expected by tomorrow morning. Conditions will change rapidly. Spreading out while crossing paths like Frequent Flyer, and a higher track up Connaught are advised.
Weather Forecast
Mild and wet SW'ly flow is forecast for the weekend. Expect up to 10cm precip today, 10cm overnight and up to 20cm on Saturday. Moderate SW winds will load slopes, and warm temps will promote slab formation.
Snowpack Summary
10cm of dense snow has buried a suncrust of steep solar slopes and surface hoar elsewhere. This will form a touchy storm slab with warm temps and loading by moderate SW winds. Facets are growing around the Nov 6 crust down ~1m which may become reactive with increasing load.
Avalanche Summary
Cheops N4 (aka STS couloir) ran naturally yesterday into the avalanche fan.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.