Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
4 · High
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Spring gale force westerlies, heavy rain and and snowfall continue to affect the park.

Large natural avalanches are likely , especially with continued loading.

Alpine travel close to the divide is not recommended

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5

    Wind slab problems persist as heavy snowfall and strong NW winds continue this week.

    Well over 1.5m of snow has fallen on the main dived and about Tasman Saddle with up to another 90cm of snow forecast on Tuesday.

    This storm cycle is loading onto a previous surface of near-surface facets, wind-pressed snow, and slick melt-freeze crusts creating potential weak layers and poor bonding.

    Stay clear of avalanche paths and avoid travelling through or beneath avalanche terrain.

    On or near the main divide the hazard may be HIGH for windslab decreasing to Considerable east of the Malte Brun Range.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Loose wet avalanches are possible where rain falls onto fresh snow in the western part of the region, or where solar warming affects fresh snow in the eastern part.With a FAFL rising to 1900m and the forecast of more rain Lw activity may increase

    Stay clear of avalanche paths and avoid travelling beneath steep slopes.

Recent Avalanche Activity

0824 - Lw avalanching size 1.5 noted across rain affected aspects and elevations. Observations have been limited due to cloud and no operational days due to wind. A large natural avalanche cycle is likely to have occurred

Current Snowpack Conditions

Estimated snowfall of over 1.5 m above 1800 m at Tasman Saddle, accompanied by strong NW winds since Saturday. Snowfall amounts tapered to around 15 cm towards the eastern part of the region. Temperatures cooled on Sunday afternoon, with a dusting of snow reaching as low as 1000 m. Strong to gale force winds have continued transport snow on Monday the 23rd. Further heavy snowfall is expected on Tuesday with another 90 cm forecast at Tasman Saddle Hut.

The new snow fell onto a variety of underlying surfaces, including wind-pressed snow, near-surface facets, and slick melt-freeze crusts. There is uncertainty about how well the new snow has bonded to these old surfaces.

Severe NW gales have stripped west-facing slopes and exposed ridges back to firm surfaces.A full re-assessment of the snow pack will need to occur.

Mountain Weather

Rain, heavy at times, snow lowering to 1200 metres early morning.

Wind at 1000 metres

Westerly gale 65 km/h, rising to severe gale 90 km/h for a time in the morning.

Wind at 2000 metres

Westerly severe gale 90 km/h, easing to gale 65 km/h in the afternoon.

Wind at 3000 metres

Westerly severe gale 100 km/h, easing to gale 80 km/h in the afternoon.

Freezing level

1500 metres, lifting to 1900 metres in the morning.

Sliding Danger

Firm snow conditions exist on west-facing slopes. Expect ridgelines to be stripped back to ice or crusts due to strong winds. Ice axe and crampons are necessary for travel above the snowline.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered