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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 27th, 2018–Apr 28th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

The primary avalanche danger has shifted to lower elevations, mainly below treeline, where Loose Wet avalanches remain possible. Refreezing surface snow with little new snow will limit the avalanche danger at higher elevations. 

Detailed Forecast

Rain showers at lower elevations below treeline Saturday will maintain wet and weak surface snow, making Loose Wet avalanches possible on steep slopes, generally over 35 degrees. 

Cooling will allow for gradually refreezing surface snow near and above treeline. The newly forming crust will limit the possibility of avalanches. Only light amounts of new snow is expected in a showery weather pattern Saturday with generally light winds. This should not create a significant avalanche problem in higher terrain.

If local areas are receiving greater than forecast new snow or rain, be prepared to change travel plans and remain on lower angled slopes and avoid travel below steeper terrain. 

Snowpack Discussion

Cooling and clouds arriving late Friday is allowing for previous wet and weak surface snow to begin re-freezing and consolidating, especially near and above treeline.

Wet surface snow conditions continue at lower elevations lacking a re-freeze.

A strong and high pressure has brought very warm temperatures to the Olympics from Monday through Friday. Temperatures at Hurricane Ridge have not fallen below freezing since Sunday night (4/22). The shallow or non-existent surface refreeze likely created unstable and poorly bonded snow within the upper 1-2 feet of the snowpack.

Aided by the recent warm weather, the Olympic snowpack has consolidated 2 ft since it's season maximum near and above treeline on 4/17. 

Observations

A National Park ranger flew over the Blue Glacier on Mt. Olympus on 4/25 and observed small Loose Wet avalanches on sun-cooked west-facing slopes with no other avalanches observed.

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald visited the Hurricane Ridge area 4/20 and reports no significant layers of concern within the snowpack and generally small cornices.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.