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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 10th, 2012–Apr 11th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: increased cloud with light precipitation developing in the late afternoon becoming moderate in some areas overnight / light to moderate southerly winds / freezing level at 2500m Thursday: light precipitation / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m Friday: mostly cloudy skies with trace amounts of precipitation / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a very large (size 3) naturally-triggered avalanche was reported on an east aspect at 2700 m that initiated on the late March crust and then stepped down to glacier ice. There have also been numerous loose snow avalanches running on steep solar aspects to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Melt-freeze conditions exist to about 2100m on all aspects and to ridge top on solar aspects. On shaded aspects higher up, 60 cm of recent storm snow is reported to be generally settling well with recent warm temperatures and generally light winds. However, operators are still reporting moderate, "resistant" shears within the recent storm snow. Additionally, a crust that formed near the end of March is a concern, particularly on steep, solar aspects. With prolonged warming, there is the possibility for wet slabs to release on this layer, or potentially on deeper layers (including the ground), as melt water starts to percolate through the snowpack. Cornices are large in some areas and drooping with recent warm temperatures.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.