Warm temperatures and sunshine are the main drivers of avalanche hazard at the moment. Minimize your exposure to large slopes if the snowpack is becoming moist or wet.
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Freezing level starting near 2000m, rising to about 2400m in by the end of the day. Strong SW winds at treeline, strong to extreme W winds at ridgetop. Potential periods of strong sun with intermittent cloud. No significant precipitation expected.Monday: Freezing level starting near 2300m, rising to 2600m in the afternoon. Moderate SW winds at treeline. Strong W/SW winds at ridgetop. Mostly clear skies. No significant precipitation expected.Tuesday: Freezing level starting at 2500m, lowering to 1500m by days end. Strong SW winds at treeline, Extreme SW winds at ridgetop. No significant precipitation expected.
Avalanche Summary
No recent observations. In the neighboring Lizard Range numerous loose wet avalanches and a few wet slabs were observed to size 2 on Friday. Our field team also reported continued widespread loose wet avalanches and wet slabs to size 2 that were entraining significant mass as they moved downhill.
Snowpack Summary
Sustained warm temperatures are helping to rapidly settle the snowpack at and below treeline. Ongoing SW winds have likely left lingering wind slabs on north through east facing features. The mid-March rain crust is down 30-60cm and has shown a good bond with snow above. Old persistent weak layers are still intact in the mid and lower snowpack. There is potential for these layers to wake up with sustained warming and/or significant rain. Recent cornice growth has been reported and these cornices may become fragile with daytime warming.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.