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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2016–Feb 7th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Daytime warming may increase sensitivity of stubborn wind slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

No significant snow or wind in the forecast. The big news is BIG warm up on Monday/Tuesday with a strong temperature inversion and freezing levels rising sharply. There is major disagreement in the models as to exactly when and how high they will go but will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2000-3000m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches within this region were observed on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

5cm of new snow overnight with moderate to strong winds in variable directions have created fresh 20-30cm wind slabs in areas you might not normally expect to find them such as aspects that are generally windward and well below ridge tops. Large cornices have been reported in areas you would expect to find large cornices. In some ares there is a freezing rain crust below the most recent storm snow. A persistent weak layer of buried surface hoar can be found 70-100cm down depending on elevation. A weak crust/facet layer from early December still exists deep in the snowpack but has been unreactive.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.