Avalanche Forecast

Fair weather should be seen on Wednesday with some high clouds especially over the Olympics and north Cascades. Quite a rise in freezing levels should be seen Wednesday so that means significantly warmer temperatures.

The main problem on Wednesday east of the crest should be loose wet avalanches. Watch for natural or triggered rollerballs that would initially be seen on steep solar slopes but that could spread to other slopes. Don't underestimate the power of slow moving loose wet snow avalanches which could take you some where you don't want to go such as into gullies or other terrain traps and then sets up like concrete. These conditions should extend to some extent down into the near treeline and the upper part of the below treeline.

Wind slab will linger longer east of the crest. Watch for firmer wind transported snow on previous lee slopes mainly on N-SE slopes near ridges.

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially in the lower part of the below tree line, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

A series of fronts in an atmospheric river crossed the Northwest the past few days. The east slopes have seen quite a variety of weather and snow conditions. The Harts Pass Snotel and the NWAC Washington Pass weather stations total snow gages indicate about a foot of snow during this period. Other areas east of the crest have had less snow or rain.

NWAC pro-observer Tom Curtis was at Dirty Face Peak on Saturday and found small roller balls in recent snow with no recent avalanches and no signs of instability.

The North Cascade Mountain Guides were at Washington Pass on Sunday and found 30-40 cm of storm snow with touchy 6 inch storm slab above 7000 feet. They also reported lots of small loose wet avalanches at lower elevations.

The North Cascade Mountain Guides near Washington Pass on Monday also reported a size 1.5 20-30 cm deep x 25 m wide wind slab on a north slope that was remotely triggered  from a shallow spot with facets near rocks. So there is definitely still some variability out there.

Regarding the potential January 15th persistent slab - NWAC pro-observers and North Cascade Guide reports last week in the northeast and central east zones have found the January 15th facet/crust layers at 35 cm-1 m below the surface with the facets starting to turn to rounded grains and not reactive or not releasing in pit tests. So it appears the January 15th facet/crust layers are strengthening and stabilizing. This problem has been removed from the central east zone forecast but retained in the northeast zone until more information becomes available there.