Avalanche Forecast

The amazing storm cycle of the past 10 days is winding down. Winds should decrease and light snow showers should end on Friday with cool temperatures. But deep avalanche layers will not go away right away.

This weather will start to bring some stabilizing to recent snow layers. The main concerns at Hurricane will be recently formed wind and storm slab layers.

Deep wind slab will be mostly likely on lee slopes at higher elevations. Watch for signs of firmer wind transported snow. Deep storm slab will be left in the forecast for Friday in case it needs another day to stabilize. Deep storm slab should still be possible on Friday on sheltered aspects from above to below treeline.

Recent Northwest Weather

An extended mild and dry period occurred the latter half of January generally causing a crust to form in all areas. Very cold weather followed in early February in the Olympics which produced low density snowfall and strong temperature gradients in the upper snowpack that generally caused surface hoar frost and faceting near the crust.

During the past 10 days the Pacific Northwest has been pummeled almost daily by frontal systems producing periods of strong winds and heavy snowfall. The latest storm Wednesday night and Thursday morning has brought another round of heavy snow. The water equivalent at Hurricane over the past 10 days is about 7 inches with snowfall about 5 feet at the NWAC weather station.

Observations for Washington Cascades near and west of the crest

Several avalanche cycles have been seen the past 10 days. West of the crest the January crust has become buried pretty deeply and although some recent avalanches have been big it seems there isn't any confirmed activity down to that layer lately. Forecast attention near and west of the crest will be focused on recent storm layers.

A cold front Tuesday evening caused heavy loading rates at gradually warming temperatures. This caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle that was observed in many areas by Wednesday morning with numerous wind and storm slab avalanches noted from the Mt Baker, Snoqualmie Pass and Crystal Mountain and Crystal Mountain ski areas. Some of the avalanches were up to 3-5 feet deep!

Another front moved past on Wednesday night and Thursday morning causing denser snow at warmer temperatures. Easy ski triggering of storm slabs on Thursday up to about 1-1.5 feet mainly on lee slopes was reported by ski areas including Mt Baker and Alpental.

The mid and base pack at Hurricane should still consist of mostly stable crusts and melt form layers from periods of warm weather earlier this winter.

Keep an eye on your riding partner in the deep snow until the new snow settles and the risk of SIS subsides.