Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Feb 20 – 21, 2016Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The forecast calls for cooler temps but it is now mid February and we have a complex snowpack with persistent weak layers, recently buried melt-freeze and solar crusts with big cornices looming. When the sun pops out, the solar heating is significant

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–4
    The last 10 day has seen no shortage of wind in the land of "K". Pay particular attention to cross wind affected areas and wind loaded start zones at treeline and above. Be extremely careful if crusts are detected beneath these wind slabs.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–5
    As previously mentioned, snowpack tests are showing less alarming results on this layer but strong caution must taken in shallow snowpack features at treeline and especially in the alpine where the winds have had greater effect on distribution.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Storm slabs from last weeks light incremental snowfalls have piled up into some significant storm slabs. Watch for these slabs as you get above 2100 meters, especially on solar aspects where these slabs rest atop crusted interfaces.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Sunday should bring cooler temperatures - freeze levels at valley bottom. Cloudy in the morning and the sun might pop out in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the west 45km/h at treeline. No precipitation anticipated.

Avalanche Summary

To the eastern edge of our forecast region, a fresh 1.5 and a size 2.0 were observed on solar aspects of Mt. Nestor in the alpine. These slabs are likely failing as a result of a combination of wind loaded slabs on top of sun crusts with a bit of local solar warming.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is beginning to take on characteristics of late winter/early spring. The january 6th facets are buried about 80cm deep but are giving no results to spotty sudden collapses in isolated locations above treeline and alpine. There are also several melt-freeze & sun crusts from February 11th (40-50 cm) and February19th buried about 10-15cm. A complex array of storm slabs, wind slabs, cornices and deeply buried persistent weak layers in the mid to upper snowpack coupled with variable and difficult to predict results in snowpack tests.  Snowpack areas that are thin (less than 100cm) are weak and facetted.

Regions covered