Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Unsettled conditions are expected for Sunday as weak system crosses the south of the province before an Arctic ridge of high pressure pushes into the region late-Sunday/early-Monday. Clear, cold, and dry conditions will dominate conditions for most of the week.Sat. Night/Sunday: Partly cloudy in the morning, clearing in the afternoon, scattered flurries 0-2cm, treeline temperatures around -12C, ridgetop winds light SW-NWMonday/Tuesday: Clear and sunny, treeline temperatures around -8, ridgetop winds light NW-NE

Natural avalanche activity is generally decreasing now that the storm has ended but we are still receiving reports of natural activity. Conditions are ideal for human triggering right now and we have received numerous reports of skier triggered avalanches, many of which have released quite deep in the snowpack. Several of these avalanches were remotely triggered. We received only one report of an avalanche in the Cariboos on Friday but this may speak to a lack of observers more than a lack of activity.  The snowpack in the Cariboos is very similar to that of the North Columbia Monshees/Selkirks right now and a variety of avalanches were reported in this region on Friday including natural, skier triggered, remotely triggered, and explosive triggered.  The largest avalanche was a size 3, the deepest was 180cm, the farthest away remote trigger was 500m, and the longest ran 800m.

The recent ten-day storm has produced a cohesive slab that averages 40-80 cm in thickness. This slab sits on a nasty persistent weak layer (surface hoar/facet/crust combo) that was formed during the preceding month of cold, dry weather. This weak layer is widespread at all elevations and aspects, and is creating problems even in previously skied terrain. Large settlements and whumpfs have been reported at all elevations. We have received numerous reports of remotely-triggered avalanches from as far as 500m away which indicates a high likelihood of large propagations within the weak layer. We expect touchy conditions to remain in place longer than we're normally accustomed to. Recent strong winds out of the SW through NW have created wind slabs on leeward features in wind exposed areas at treeline and in the alpine. In many areas, thick wind slabs may overlie the persistent weak layer creating conditions for very large avalanches.Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.