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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2020–Jan 24th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Be prepared to avoid avalanche terrain if there's heavy snowfall in your part of the region, snowfall amounts are highly variable.

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Flurries continue overnight bringing another 10-20 cm of snow, strong wind from the southwest, freezing level drops to 1500 m with alpine temperatures around -2 C.

FRIDAY: Scattered flurries as the front leaves the region with most areas getting 5-15 cm of new snow and a few (uncertain) locations likely getting 15-25 cm, moderate to strong wind from the southwest, alpine temperatures around -3 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with some light flurries, light wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with light flurries starting in the afternoon, moderate wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

There are no reports since the onset of the current storm, but it has likely caused natural storm slab avalanches in parts of the region that have received more than 20 cm of new snow. The additional load of new snow is also increasing the likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches in northern parts of the region.

Snowpack Summary

A frontal system crossing the region is resulting in variable amounts of new snow and forecast amounts on Friday are also variable and uncertain. As of Thursday afternoon the northern part of the region received 15-30 cm and the southern part of the region received 10-15 cm. Another 15-40 cm of snow could accumulate by Friday afternoon, resulting in very thick and widespread storm slabs in some areas and more localized wind slabs in other areas. Wind over the past few days has been strong from the south, resulting in highly variable conditions in open terrain.

There are currently no concerns about deep weak layers in the south of the region (e.g. Coquihalla).

There have been two layers of concern in the northern half of the region (e.g. Duffey, Hurley). One is a weak layer of surface hoar buried about 100 cm deep that professionals are tracking at treeline in sheltered areas. The other is weak faceted grains and crusts near the bottom of the snowpack, that is most likely to be triggered in shallow rocky start zones.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.