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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 13th, 2021–Nov 14th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Storm Cycle!

Even though below treeline elevations are quite shrubby, don't let that fool you!

Expect avalanches to be running into valley bottoms.

Weather Forecast

The Atmospheric River is forecast to arrive tonight!

On Sunday we could see ~60cm of new snow, with freezing levels rising to 1900m and strong to extreme winds from the SW.

Monday could see another 48cm with extreme SW gusty winds

Snowpack Summary

Recent strong winds, new snow and warm temperatures has deposited fresh storm slabs in the Alpine and exposed areas of TL. Height of snow varies significantly with elevation from ~30cm @ Rogers Pass to ~175cm in the Alpine. There are 2 prominent crusts to date, the Nov 5th buried ~40cm and the October crust lies near the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

A natural size 2.0 avalanche was observed off of Mt Cheops today. Natural activity increased Friday in the HWY corridor, and there are several MIN reports about the Cheops North path avalanches reaching down into the bushy run-outs below treeline. Avalanche activity will peak on Sunday and Monday as Rogers Pass gets hammered by the next storm.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.