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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2024–Jan 5th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

With some fresh snow finally arriving, expect sluffing and loose/dry avalanches in steep terrain, and pockets of slab in wind-loaded areas.

The record low snowpack is not yet covering many hazards at or just below the surface, a ride in an avalanche of any size could result in injury if you slam into a boulder or a tree.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed the last 3 days. Last weekend saw warm temps trigger a loose, wet avalanche cycle. One of these avalanches stepped down to the Dec 1st surface hoar layer, triggering a large slab avalanche. This is indicative that a large load, in a shallow, faceted zone, could step down to the weak layers in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of recent snow overlies a variety of old surfaces: sun crust on solar aspects; firm wind effect in the alpine and exposed tree-line locations; and soft facetted snow on sheltered N aspects.

Below 2100m there is a strong rain crust down 40-60cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar, down 60-100cm, has seen isolated deep pockets "pop" out in steeper, alpine terrain.

In shallow areas at upper elevations, the base of the snowpack is faceted and unsupportive.

Weather Summary

Ongoing flurries continue to provide a much needed refresh of the surface conditions in Rogers Pass.

Tonight: Flurries (5cm), Alpine low -10°C, light-moderate W ridgetop winds.

Fri: Scattered flurries (3cm), High -9°C, Light gusting moderate SW winds.

Sat: Scattered flurries (5cm), Low -9°C, High -8°C, Light SW winds.

Sun: Isolated flurries, Low -18°C, High -10°C, Light W wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.