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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2024–Jan 8th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, North Monashee.

Recent storm snow is the main concern, but several lurking weak layers are making snowpack evaluation more complicated. Choose conservative terrain to simplify the equation.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural size 1-1.5 (small) storm slabs were observed in the Blue River area on Saturday. These appeared to involve only 20-30 cm of new snow. Skiers in the Trophy Range reported skier-triggered sluffing, rather than storm slabs, with 30-45 cm of new snow in that area. Improving visibility may allow a better look at whether any persistent or deep persistent slabs were triggered during or since Saturday's storm.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50 cm of recent snow is settling and gradually bonding to a variety of surfaces. Sheltered terrain where it has buried surface hoar is where this bond is most suspect. The storm also buried a crust below 1600 m.

Two additional surface hoar layers in the top 1.5 m of the snowpack remain a concern. The deeper of the two likely has a robust crust above it below treeline.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly throughout the region. Weak basal facets are present at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Becoming cloudy. Southwest alpine wind 5 to 10 km/h, increasing.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with a trace of new snow expected, increasing overnight. Southwest alpine wind 10 to 15 km/h, treeline temperature -11°C.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 10 to 20 cm of new snow expected, south alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature -10°C.

Wednesday

Clearing. Northwest alpine wind 5-15 km/h. Treeline temperature -16°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.