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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 5th, 2026–Mar 6th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Glacier.

The January 26th Surface Hoar layer woke up last week, producing very large avalanches throughout Rogers Pass.

Slopes that have not yet failed will be ripe for human triggering and should be absolutely avoided!

With continued loading the next few days, manage exposure to overhead avalanche terrain with extra caution.

Confidence

Avalanche Summary

We saw 3 fresh size 1 natural avalanches on a treeline East aspect on Wednesday, ~100cm deep, on the Jan 26th layer.

Explosive tests at Fidelity Tues. produced a size 3 avalanche on the Jan 26 surface hoar, which remoted a second size 3 slab 50m away.

Last Friday's cycle saw natural and explosive triggered avalanches up to size 4, running to valley bottom. The carnage of downed timber and debris littering Connaught and Asulkan is sobering.

See the following link to a recent MCR.

Snowpack Summary

15-20cm of new snow covers thick wind slabs on leeward features (from previous Extreme S'ly winds), and a suncrust on solar aspects (SE through W).

The Feb 9 surface hoar (SH) is down 90-120 cm and remains reactive in snowpack testing. The Feb 9 SH sits over a crust on solar aspects.

The Jan 26th layer is buried down 130-160 cm, and is composed of very large surface hoar (up to 40mm), facets, and/or a crust, The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.

Weather Summary

Snow flurries continue Friday, followed by an organized system bringing snowfall Saturday and Sunday.

Tonight Isolated Flurries. Alpine Low -7°C. Freezing level (FZL) 1100m. Gusty West ridgetop wind.

Fri Scattered flurries (5cm). High -4 °C. FZL 1600m. Light SW wind.

Sat Snow (15-20cm). Low -5 °C, High 0 °C. FZL 2000m. Strong gusty SW wind.

Sun Snow (5-10cm). Low -15 °C, High -4 °C. FZL 1500m. Strong gusty SW wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Shooting cracks, whumpfs, and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
  • This avalanche problem is difficult to trigger, but would have serious consequences.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.