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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2024–Jan 29th, 2024

Alpine
Widespread avalanches certain.
Treeline
Widespread avalanches certain.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Boundary, Stewart, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

Travel in avalanche terrain is strongly not recommended today.Very large avalanches have been observed in the region recently and are expected to continue.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Saturday: Numerous large and very large (up to size 4) naturally-triggered avalanches were observed in the Bear Pass area.

In other parts of the region numerous large and very large (size 2-3) natural and explosive-triggered avalanches were observed failing as storm slabs and on deeper persistent weak layers. Numerous loose wet avalanches were also observed.

This widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected to continue over the coming days.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 80 cm of snow has fallen in parts of the region over the last week. This snow is likely very dense, settling rapidly, and moist or wet at treeline elevations and below, where some of this snow fell as rain. In the alpine strong southerly winds have been blowing this snow, depositing it as thick and touchy slabs on leeward slopes.

A weak layer of surface hoar and/or facets formed earlier in the month that is now buried around 60-80cm. Below this, a thick crust from January 1st exists up to around 1600 m. There is high potential for the warm temperatures and new precipitation to overload these layers triggering very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with 10-30 cm of new snow /moderate to heavy rain, southeast alpine wind 50-60 km/h, treeline temperature 0°C, freezing level 1100 m

Monday

Cloudy with 15-35 cm of new snow / moderate to heavy rain, southerly alpine wind 70-80 km/h, treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 1300 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 2-7 cm of snow / light to moderate rain, southwest alpine wind 30 km/h, treeline high of 0 °C, freezing level 1100m

Wednesday

Cloudy with 10-20 cm of snow / Moderate to heavy rain, southeast alpine wind 40 km/h, treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level 700 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.