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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2024–Jan 30th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Warm rain, salty tears

Drowning snowpack disappears

Melting, falling down

💦

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread loose wet avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred throughout the monsoon. Observations have been limited aside from small loose wet activity out of steep, rocky treeline terrain near Arrowsmith and Strathcona on Friday and Saturday.

Natural activity may slow down during the break in rain today, but human triggering remains likely.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has saturated the snowpack to mountaintop. Below treeline, the snowpack has melted out almost entirely, leaving it below threshold for avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Cloudy with continued rain, south alpine winds 100 km/h, treeline temperature 4 °C, freezing level 2000 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with scattered showers, southwest alpine winds 40-50 km/h, treeline temperature 5 °C, freezing level 2300 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with heavy rain, southwest alpine winds 80-90 km/h, treeline temperature 5 °C, freezing level 2100 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with moderate rain turning to snow, southwest alpine winds 80-90 km/h, treeline temperature 2 °C, freezing levels around 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.