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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

  Things are looking HOT up high for the next couple days. Overhead hazards such as cornice failures and wet loose avalanches on large alpine slopes will be the primary concern. Pay attention to what's above your head and back off of slopes if the snow surface becomes moist.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

  

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy / Moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature -11 / Freezing level 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Sunny / Moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 2 / Freezing level rapidly rising to 2200 m. and remaining elevated overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny / Strong, south ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 2 / Freezing level 2100 m.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 0 / Freezing level 1700 m.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported in this region on Thursday. However, the rapidly rising freezing level and sunny skies on Saturday are expected to elevate the avalanche hazard through the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

5-10 cm. of dry snow overlies a crust on shady aspects, except in the northwest of the region where convective squalls have deposited up to 20 cm. of recent snow. The convective nature of spring storms results in widely varying snowfall amounts. Crusty snow surfaces exist on solar aspects. Pockets of old wind slabs may exist in isolated locations below alpine ridgelines. Large cornices are present along ridgelines.

A persistent weak layer made up of surface hoar at treeline elevations and a crust with facets in the alpine on solar aspects can be found down 50-150 cm. in some parts of the region. No recent avalanches have been reported on these layers. However, big warm ups, like the one headed our way this weekend can awaken dormant weak layers resulting in large avalanches. Steep, rocky, convex terrain with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack are examples of places where triggering these layers are more likely.

Sunshine and warm temperatures often cause large cornice failures which are hazardous on their own and can also trigger large avalanches on deeper weak layers that the weight of a single rider would not trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.