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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2021–Feb 27th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Neighboring regions have issued a special avalanche warning. Our snowpack went through a significant change since the deep freeze in early February. Recent winds, and temperature fluctuations have created a highly complex untrustworthy snowpack.   

Weather Forecast

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. High -14 °C. Wind west: 15 km/h gusting to 40 km/h.

Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.  Low -16 °C, High -9 °C. Wind southwest: 20 km/h

Snowpack Summary

Widespread extensive wind effect in the alpine and is highly variable. The lee has windslabs (generally hard) that are well down into the terrain. The windward has been heavily stripped. Treeline and below has wind effect in any exposed terrain. The snowpack below the alpine is faceted with depth hoar near the base and is failing in test results. 

Avalanche Summary

There has been a wind slab avalanche cycle in the last 72 hours from the extreme winds. Most avalanches were size 2 and in the alpine below ridge tops with one size 3 noted that ran down below treeline.

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.