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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2026–Feb 22nd, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Persistent slab avalanches remain the primary concern.

Be on the lookout for wind slab development throughout the day on Sunday.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Field teams have remotely triggered numerous size 1 to 2 persistent slabs from low angle terrain at tree-line and below. These have been 40-60cm deep, failing on surface hoar layers in the upper snowpack.

Natural and human triggered dry loose avalanches have also been reported at upper elevations up to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60cm of low density snow on the surface. Expect wind slab to develop with all this light snow available for transport.

The Feb 9 surface hoar (SH) is down 40-60cm and remains reactive in tests. The Feb 9 SH sits over a crust on solar aspects.

The Jan 26th layer, composed of surface hoar/facets/crust, is buried down 60-80cm. The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.

Weather Summary

Warming temperatures on Sunday.

Tonight: Clear periods. Alp low -8°C. Wind S 20km/h. Freezing level (FZL) valley bottom.

Sun: Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5cm. Alp high -4°C. S winds 25-45km/h. FZL 1700m.

Mon: Flurries, 8 cm. High -4. Wind SW 20 gusting to 70km/h. FZL 1500 metres.

Tues Cloudy / sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace precipitation. Wind SW 15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. FZL 900m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Loose avalanches may start small, but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.