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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2023–Mar 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Diligently maintain a conservative mindset. You may not see signs of instability on the surface however the deep persistent weak layer remains a major concern at the bottom of the snowpack.

Keep in mind that even short periods of sun can have a significant impact. Give steep solar slopes and overhead cornices a wide berth during periods of strong solar radiation.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in this region.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a report to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 15 cm of low-density new snow has been redistributed by northeast winds into pockets of wind slab in exposed areas. This new snow overlies hard wind-affected surfaces in open areas, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, and facetted snow in sheltered areas.

In the Purcells, several weak layers from Jan and Feb can be found down 50 to 120 cm however they are showing signs of strengthening. The mid-snowpack is generally well-settled.

The lower snowpack is made up of a widespread layer of large, weak basal facets and depth hoar in some areas. this weakness has been responsible for a number of recent very large, destructive avalanches and will continue to be a concern.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Clear periods. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -11 °C. Ridge wind light from the southwest. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Sunday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -5 °C. Ridge wind 15 to 40 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level rises to 1300 meters.

Monday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, up to 10 cm of new snow accumulation at upper elevations. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind 30 to 60 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level rises to 2000 meters.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -3 °C. Ridge wind 15 to 45 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level rises to 1700 meters.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.