Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Jan 2 – 3, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–5
    Big winds combined with plenty of snow available for transportation have resulted in widespread wind slabs on lee slopes. I'd be suspect of any open slope, even around treeeline.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3–6
    Warm alpine temperatures have made cornices unstable.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–7
    Surface hoar buried about a meter below the surface has created a dangerous and tricky avalanche problem. Activity has slowed in the Caribou's, but this layer needs to be treated with great caution. Conservative terrain choices are appropriate.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: up to 20 cm new snow with freezing levels around 1600 m. Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds. Wednesday: 10 cm new snow or rain with freezing levels rising to 2000 m. Strong Southerly ridgetop winds. Thursday: 5 cm new snow, freezing levels lowering to around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Two large (size 3) cornice-triggered avalanches occurred in the alpine on Sunday. One stepped down into lower facet layers producing a crown up to 2 m deep. Another cornice-triggered avalanche occurred on Monday on a north aspect in the alpine; this one did not pull out a slab on the slope below.

Snowpack Summary

100 - 150cm of total storm snow has fallen in the region since Christmas. Winds have redistributed the storm snow into wind slabs that are quite widespread; you can find them at and above treeline in wind exposed locations. Even open areas below treeline are suspect for wind affected snow. A surface hoar/facet/crust interface (persistent weakness aka PWL) from mid-December is buried anywhere from 100-150cm deep & has been quite reactive making for touchy avalanche conditions.

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