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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2025–Feb 2nd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell.

Conservative terrain selection is essential. Avalanches are likely due to continued snow and wind.

Check out the new Forecaster Blog "Shifting your Mindset".

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, several human-triggered size 1 avalanches, both slabs and loose dry avalanches were reported.

The new snow will be reactive this weekend. Expect storm slabs anywhere deeper deposits have formed and fast-moving dry loose avalanches in steep terrain. Natural avalanches are possible on wind-loaded slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Snow on Sunday will bring storm totals to 15 to 30 cm, with deeper deposits in wind-loaded areas. The new snow will likely bond poorly to old surfaces, which include melt-freeze crusts on sun-exposed slopes, surface hoar or facets on shaded slopes, and wind-affected snow at higher elevations. Some areas also have slightly deeper surface hoar layers that have not yet been loaded by a slab (20 to 30 cm deep).

A weak layer of facets from early December is buried 50 to 100 cm deep, or as shallow as 30 cm near Invermere. While recently inactive, this layer could reawaken with heavy loading or warming.

The base of the snowpack consists of a thick crust with facets or depth hoar in many areas.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with 0 to 3 cm of snow. 20 to 30 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.

Monday

Mix of sun and cloud with 0 to 2 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Tuesday

Mostly clear. 10 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low angle terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.