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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2021–Jan 3rd, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

New snow, warm temps and strong SW winds will likely initiate an avalanche cycle on Sunday. A good day to make conservative terrain choices. 

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Our weather stations are currently down due to a satellite issue.

Most weather models seem to agree that we should see about 20-25cm of snow beginning overnight and into the morning with strong SW winds. Temperatures will be around -5C and then begin cooling again as the storm leaves the region late in the day on Sunday. New snow, winds and warm temps are ideal conditions for avalanche formation. 

Avalanche Summary

One audible avalanche likely a cornice collapse off of Snow Peak. An additional sz 2 avalanche on the back side of Lawrence Grassi was observed on a flight to the Burstall Pass region. Visibility was limited for most of the day and as a result, not many new avalanches were observed.

Snowpack Summary

Pronounced windslab development in the region especially in the alpine and into treeline. Our Snowpack mainly consist of generations of windslabs overlying a relatively strong mid pack with the Basal November rain crust at the lower elevations. For december it has been a fairly stable snowpack with the windslabs in the upper snowpack as the primary concern but that is all likely to change with the incoming storm. As we did pre Christmas, we are expecting to see avalanches in the upper snowpack and the possibility of the basal facets and November crust becoming overloaded and failing triggering large avalanches. Forecasters were getting cracking in open areas around burstall pass. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.