Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

A mix of sun and cloud is expected on Tuesday with light alpine wind from the north and treeline temperatures around -8C. A mix of sun and cloud is also forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Alpine wind is expected to remain light from the north and treeline temperatures are forecast to be around -10C.

On Sunday, a natural size 1.5 wind slab avalanche was observed in steep unskiable terrain on an east aspect at 2100 m elevation. Solar triggered loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 were also observed on steep southerly aspects. In the far north of the region near Blue River, a snowmobiler triggered a size 3 persistent slab avalanche on a south aspect in the alpine which released on surface hoar down 100 cm. Check out the MIN post for more details. In the south of the region, skiers triggered a few size 1 wind slabs above 2100 m elevation. South of Mica in the Selkirks, explosives triggered one size 3 storm slab avalanche on a northeast aspect at 2300 m which stepped down to a deeper layer in the snowpack and ran full path breaking a mature tree. On Tuesday, lingering wind slabs are expected to be an isolated concern in steep and unsupported or convex wind loaded terrain features. In the far north of the region, a persistent slab problem exists. If you are recreating in the Monshees south of Blue River or Valemount, use the Cariboos bulletin for more representative conditions.

30-60 cm of recent storm snow typically overlies the variable mid-January interface with the largest snowfall amounts in the north of the region. The buried interface consists of wind affected surfaces in exposed terrain, surface hoar up to 10 mm in sheltered areas, and/or widespread faceted old snow. The bond between the new snow and the old surface has generally gained a lot of strength with the colder temperatures that followed the storm but weaknesses may still be lingering, especially where surface hoar is preserved. Strong southwest winds during the storm had redistributed the new snow and developed wind slabs in leeward terrain features. Isolated moderate outflow winds may have more recently resulted in reverse wind loading.The mid-December facet/surface hoar persistent weak layer can be found buried 100-120 cm deep. This layer is now dormant in the south of the region but is still a real concern in the far north of the region in the mountains around Blue River and Valemount.  It is highly recommended to investigate this layer before committing to any large, unsupported features.