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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2021–Jan 6th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Fresh wind slabs are likely to be encountered at upper elevations. Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, and recent avalanches.

Concern remains for persistent weak layers, which are best managed through conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with a few flurries, 5 cm / strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -8 

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, 5cm / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -5 / freezing level 1400 m

THURSDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light northeast wind / alpine high temperature near -6 

FRIDAY - Mainly sunny / light northeast wind / alpine high temperature near -6

Avalanche Summary

At the time of publishing, there was a preliminary report of a human triggered size 2.5 avalanche north of Kicking Horse on Tuesday. It is suspected that this avalanche ran on a persistent weak layer that was buried in December.

There were a few reports of natural and explosives triggered size 2-2.5 wind and storm slab avalanches on Monday.

On Sunday there were reports of numerous natural, human and explosives triggered avalanches up to size 2. There was also one natural size 2.5 deep persistent slab avalanche reported on a north aspect at 2500 m near Invermere. 

NOTABLE MIN from Sunday Here.

On Thursday, a ski cut resulted in a size 2 persistent slab avalanche on a northeast aspect in the alpine near Kicking Horse Mountain Resort. MIN report HERE.

These recent avalanches are a reminder that when persistent slabs are the problem, conservative terrain choices are the answer.

Snowpack Summary

Recent fresh snow with strong southwest wind overnight has likely formed wind slabs in leeward terrain features at upper elevations.

There are currently several layers of concern in much of the region's snowpack. 40-50 cm of snow sits on a weak layer of surface hoar that was reported in the Golden area. 

The mid-December surface hoar is now down 90-130 cm. Although there have been no new reports of avalanches on this layer in the last few days, it remains possible to trigger where it is well preserved. There may also be a crust near, or instead of this layer in some areas.

The lower snowpack is characterized by more crusts, the most notable is a rain crust from early November that is sitting near the base of the snowpack, surrounded by a weak layer of sugary facets. It is most likely to be reactive to human triggers in steep, shallow, rocky areas with a thin to thick snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.