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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2024–Mar 15th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.

Intense spring sun and rising temperatures are making large natural avalanches likely.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

See photos below of large rider-triggered avalanches from Wednesday and Thursday near Fernie. Most notably, one skier was buried in a large (size 2.5 or 3) avalanche that they triggered in a steep, rocky, alpine-like start zone. Luckily they were able to self-rescue, and everyone is ok.

Looking forward, we expect that sun and warm temperatures will make widespread, large, natural and rider-triggered avalanches likely.

Snowpack Summary

In the morning, dry snow may remain at high elevations with refrozen crusts at lower elevations. Through the day, surface snow will start to melt due to intense spring sun and freezing levels forecasted to be well above mountain tops. This loose, melted snow will get deeper into the snowpack as the day goes on. 

Cornices are currently large and looming, and are likely to become more unstable during warming. See photo below.

80-150 cm below the snow surface, a widespread crust with weak facets above remains a concerning layer for human triggering, especially during this rapid warm-up.

The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.

Weather Summary

Any night-time cooling will be restricted to near valley bottom, the alpine will stay above 0 °C.

Thursday Night

Clear. No new snow expected. Light west ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to around 1250 m, with above freezing layer forming in the alpine. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

Friday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2800 m. Treeline high around 4 °C.

Saturday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level 2900 m. Treeline high around 6 °C.

Sunday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3300 m. Treeline high around 7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.