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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2022–Jan 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Expect changing conditions as you gain elevation in the wake of this storm,. Low elevations hold wet snow and higher elevations hold storm slabs that may be reactive to human triggers.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

The wet weather finally exits Thursday. Expect warm temperatures to continue Thursday before finally cooling off for the weekend.

WEDNESDAY: Up to 10 mm of rain is possible overnight with freezing levels remain around 2000 m. Moderate southwest winds.

THURSDAY: The front exits leaving clearing skies and no significant precipitation expected. Freezing levels remain at 2000 m, with light northwest winds. 

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny with strong southwesterlies increasing over the day. Freezing levels rise from 1500 m to 3000 m 

SATURDAY: Freezing levels remain below 1500 m. A mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation expected. Moderate winds from the west. 

Avalanche Summary

Naturally triggered storm slabs to size 1.5 were observed at high elevations in steep terrain features lee to the strong southwest winds on Tuesday.

Low elevation naturally triggered wet avalanches were observed throughout the highway corridors to size 2 throughout the duration of this storm. 

Snowpack Summary

20-60 cm of mixed precipitation has created a variety of surface snow conditions. Alpine areas have seen strong southwest winds creating deeper deposits in north through east facing slopes. At lower elevations the precipitation fell as rain creating a saturated upper snowpack. 

This recent precipitation adds to the 50+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1, which may overly sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December.

Around 80 to 200 cm deep, a weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. The layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. Observed avalanches on this layer are sporadic and isolated. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas. The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
  • If triggered, storm slabs in-motion may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.