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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2022–Jan 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

The return of cold temperatures will bring fresh snow ! Be mindful of developing winds slabs throughout the day. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Snow 5-10 cm, treeline low of -5 C, strong southwesterly wind, freezing level lowering to valley bottom.

TUESDAY: Snow, 5-10 cm, treeline high around -8 C, moderate west wind, freezing level at valley bottom.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny periods, treeline high around -12 C, light northwest wind, freezing level at valley bottom.

THURSDAY: Flurries, treeline high around -5 C, strong southwesterly wind, freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed nor reported in the last 24 hours.

On Thursday, three very large avalanches were reported from this region. These avalanches failed on the early December crust and showed wide propagation. They occurred on southwest to southeast aspects and were naturally triggered in response to rising temperatures and solar radiation.

The broader area including the South Rockies and neighbouring regions has been experiencing a sporadic pattern of very large avalanches over the last couple of weeks.

Snowpack Summary

Refreeze has created a melt-freeze crust up to 2000 m capping the recent snow which is settling fast and becoming dense due to warm temperatures. This snow sits on a variety of old surfaces, including soft snow in sheltered areas and wind slabs in exposed and open areas which formed over the past few days. Dry snow can still be found in the alpine but will likely be found as hard pockets of wind slabs.

The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that was formed in early December and is now typically down 80-150 cm. In the neighbouring Lizard-Flathead region, three very large avalanches were reported on this layer on Jan 13. This layer has created a tricky low likelihood, high consequence scenario which is best managed through conservative terrain choices and disciplined backcountry travel techniques.

Terrain and Travel

  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.