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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2022–Jan 31st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Rockies.

New snow and wind continue to form fresh and reactive slabs in leeward terrain features at upper elevations. Wind slabs will be especially touchy where they sit over a crust or surface hoar.

For higher snowfall areas near Renshaw, refer to the Cariboos bulletin.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Snowfall 5-15 cm. Moderate NW wind. Treeline temperature around -10 °C. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Monday: Flurries up to 3 cm. Moderate NW wind. Treeline high around -12 °C.

Tuesday: Sunny. Light NW wind. Treeline high around -20 °C.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, strong SW wind, treeline high around -18 °C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations as visibility deteriorated on Saturday. 

The theme during the dry spell last week was wind slab avalanches size 2-3. Some of these avalanches were failing down to the bedrock in extreme terrain features.

On Friday our field team observed evidence of previous wind slab avalanches having stepped down to deeply buried layers, resulting in large avalanches in Kakwa. This observation has us scratching our heads about the potential for deep avalanches going forward.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and strong wind are forming wind slabs at upper elevations. The new snow falls on highly wind affected surfaces in the alpine, a melt-freeze crust on steep solar aspects and low elevations and a layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and below in some areas in the south of the region.

A thin crust may be found 20-30 cm deep, which was the main sliding surface for the wind slab avalanche cycle last weekend. Another crust is found around 70 cm deep but has not shown recent reactivity. The lower snowpack is generally strong and bonded, with one or multiple crusts near the ground. We suspect the lower snowpack could be weak in shallow, rocky, wind-affected slopes east of the divide.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.