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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2022–Jan 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Continue making conservative terrain choices as the storm snow settles with warm temperatures. 

If rain or warm temperatures make the upper storm snow heavy and moist treat the avalanche danger as HIGH and avoid steep slopes and overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

A noticeable shift in the weather pattern, as warm temperatures embrace the region with continued snowfall throughout the week.

Overnight Sunday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Ridge wind south, 50 km/h gusting to 75 km/h. Freezing level 600 metres with a weak temperature inversion.

Monday: Flurries, 10-20 cm accumulation. A high of 0°C in the alpine. Ridge wind southwest 55-75 km/h. Freezing levels 600-1200 metres.

Tuesday: Snowing, 25 cm accumulation. Alpine high of 1 °C. Ridge wind south 45-65 km/h. Freezing levels around 1100 metres.

Wednesday: Snowing, 5-20 cm accumulation. Alpine high 0 °C. Ridge wind southwest 25 km/h gusting to 60 km/h. Freezing level around 1000 metres.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, numerous natural loose dry avalanches up to size 2 where reported across the region.

On Thursday, operators north of Terrace reported a size 1 skier triggered persistent slab avalanche on an east aspect in an open area at treeline. This avalanche failed on a layer of surface hoar buried at the end of December. There have been no other reports of reactivity on this layer and it seems like a fairly isolated event. 

Snowpack Summary

Yesterday's storm brought 30-70 cm of new snow, with the highest amounts in coastal areas. Strong southwest winds redeposited this new snow into deep deposits of slab in lee, wind-loaded areas. 

In sheltered areas, the new snow may have formed a cohesive storm slab or remains loose and unconsolidated. 

Below the new snow, a previously wind-affected and facetted surface exists from last week's outflow winds and prolonged cold temperatures. This weak layer and hard bed surface may increase the reactivity of the storm snow. 

The early December rain crust is up to 10 cm thick, down 100-200 cm in the snowpack, and exists to an average of 1400 m in elevation. While this layer has generally gone dormant in the region, it still has the possibility of waking up with new snow load or warming, and wind slab avalanches may still have the potential to step down to this deeper layer in isolated areas. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.