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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2022–Jan 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

While avalanche conditions have improved, it may still be possible to trigger large avalanches on deeply buried weak layers. Be careful with your terrain selection, especially around steep rocky terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear skies above the valley cloud, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures drop to -12 C.

FRIDAY: Clear skies above the valley cloud, strong wind from the west with gusts to 80 km/h along the divide, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SATURDAY: Clear skies above the valley cloud, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate to strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche reports are limited to a few small wind slab avalanches on the Alberta side of the region from Tuesday and Wednesday.

The last report of deep persistent slab avalanches are from Jan 21, when some very large avalanches were triggered by cornice falls and small wind slab avalanches. Although deep persistent slab activity has recently tapered, it could still be possible to trigger these large avalanches in steep rocky terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine terrain is heavily wind-effected, sheltered areas have surface hoar growing above the valley clouds, and sun crusts are likely forming in steep south-facing terrain. Check out this post from our South Rockies field team to see condition in Elkford on Tuesday. The primary layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that formed in early December and is now 100 to 150 cm deep. This layer is found widespread through the region, but with varying test results. Recent snowpack tests have shown more reactivity in shallower snowpack areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.