Avalanche Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, light southwest wind, low temperatures around -12 C.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with some light flurries in the afternoon, light southwest wind, high temperatures around -8 C.

MONDAY: Cloudy with up to 5 cm of new snow by the morning, light southwest wind, high temperatures around -5 C.

TUESDAY: Light flurries with up to 5 cm of new snow, moderate south wind, high temperatures around -8 C.

Over the past few days there have been a few reports of small avalanches above the recently buried surface hoar and crust layers. These include several dry loose avalanches in steep terrain and a size 1 skier triggered avalanches in Glacier National Park (see the photo in this MIN report). While these avalanches have limited destructive potential, we anticipate this developing into a more concerning problem when more snow arrives.

While there is a lot of variability across the forecast region in how the recent weather reworked the snowpack, the message is similar everywhere: assess the bond of recent snow to crusts, especially if more than 20 cm of snow is present. This is most likely at higher elevations in the Selkirks. If there is not a thick rain crust at treeline and below treeline then there is probably intact buried surface hoar.

Most areas have 10-30 cm of snow sitting above crusts. In many areas, rain and freezing rain has left a crust that extends up to 2300 m. In some areas there are multiple crusts near the surface. In areas without crusts near the surface there may be a preserved surface hoar layer.

Down near the ground remains a thick rain crust with sugary facets above and below from early November. While we have not seen recent avalanches on this layer, it continues to produce occasional hard results in snowpack tests. It may be reactive to human triggers on shallow rocky slopes in the alpine or alpine-like features at treeline.

• Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.