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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2020–Nov 28th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Fresh storm slabs may be sensitive to human triggering Saturday. Watch for thick pockets of wind loaded snow in lee features. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: 10-20 cm snow, falling as rain below 1000 m, strong southwest wind, freezing level 1100-1200 m.

Saturday: Clearing, light west wind, freezing level 1000 m.

Sunday: Cloudy, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing level 1800 m.

Monday: 40 mm precip, moderate to strong northwest wind, freezing level dropping 1700 m to 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Our eyes and ears in the mountains are limited at this time of year and may continue this winter due to fewer professional observations. If you see anything while out in the field, please consider sharing it with us and fellow recreationists via the Mountain Information Network (MIN). Even just a photo of where you went is helpful. A big thank you to those that have already shared their observations thus far.

Snowpack Summary

Overnight snowfall and strong southwest winds have likely formed thick slabs in lee features above 1100 m.

Underneath, layers of crusts and moist snow consolidate as freezing levels drop.

Snowpack depth rapidly changes with elevation. The snowline has been reported to be around 900 m. The snowpack rapidly jumps to around 100 cm deep above 1000 m and between 150 to 200 cm near the mountain tops.

Check out this awesome conditions update from North Shore Rescue https://www.facebook.com/NorthShoreRescue/videos/375876093739567/

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
  • Be cautious of buried obstacles especially below treeline.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.