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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2020–Dec 15th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Sluffing continues to be a concern in steep unskied terrain Today.

Expect the hazard to increase steadily Tuesday and Wednesday with the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Light snow and overcast today. A system hitting the central Coast will push a series of fronts inland, giving intensifying snowfall early Tuesday morning with up to 15cm by end of day Tuesday and 30cm by Wednesday. Wind will pick up on Tuesday afternoon to strong from the W, and alpine temps will rise to a high of -6 C by Tuesday afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

Traces of new snow and surface facetting continue to make for fast sluffing in steep terrain. Last weeks storm(30cm) buried a variety of surfaces; surface hoar up to 10mm (rounding in some areas); a thin crust from freezing rain in and around Connaught creek: and a stronger crust on steeper solar aspects. The Nov 5 crust is down between 1m and 1.5

Avalanche Summary

Skier triggered sluffing in steep terrain yesterday was significant enough to be of concern above cliffs and around terrain traps.

There was a MIN report of a skier triggered small avalanche in the alpine on Friday.

Several small-large solar triggered loose dry avalanches were observed late last week in the highway corridor from N and S aspects.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.